The NFL will close out the first quarter of the 2019/20 season this weekend, and for the first time all year we've started to see some developing trends.
Through three weeks we know how bad the Dolphins and Jets will be, while pretty much locking in New England and Kansas City for the postseason. The NFC has a similar picture becoming clearer, despite key injuries to top quarterbacks like Drew Brees in New Orleans.
The biggest difference in the parlays lies in the first one, playing the opponent in each game. The Lions hosting the Chiefs and only getting six points on a short line speaks way more about Detroit’s record than anything else. The team came off a huge win in Philadelphia and is undefeated at 2-0-1.
The reality is injuries were a huge reason why Detroit won last week. They escaped a Cardinals comeback in Week 1 just to settle for a tie. The Chiefs defense has not been the Achilles heel some thought, and Patrick Mahomes put up better numbers last week against Baltimore than Dak Prescott did against the Dolphins.
The Colts are a good football team, they were great before Andrew Luck retired. Jacoby Brissett is making some big throws, and the defense was already set to compete before Luck’s departure. Indy comes in winning two close games following a week one loss.
The Raiders dropped two straight as their offense has been limited in scoring opportunities. Not a good sign taking on the Colts in Indy. Arizona was blown out by the Panthers and Kyle Allen last week, a terrible sign as Seattle comes to town.
Seattle beat two bad teams before losing at home to the Brees-less Saints. Expect a heavy dose of Russell Wilson and Chris Carson on the ground. Arizona’s numbers are brutal, giving up 29 ppg and 463 ypg in the air.
In this case we play the team we take, not so much the opponent. While it does play a big factor, the reality is we’ve seen enough of Los Angeles, Buffalo, and New Orleans to feel great about this parlay. The Chargers are primed to take out the last two week’s frustrations on the lowly Dolphins. The number isn’t nearly large enough to scare us off.
It’s a tune up game for the Chargers who don’t seem like they miss Melvin Gordon too much with Austin Ekeler intact. Phillip Rivers still has talent on the outside, it’s not much to ask them to win by 17 against a team willingly tanking.
Buffalo is legit. At 3-0 there’s no second-guessing Josh Allen at quarterback, and there are some legit weapons around him. New England, like Dallas, hasn’t been challenged much and will face their first tough offense. The under is the best play here with neither team’s defense giving up much in the air.
However, looking at just the Bills defense you see why they are a great play with the points. Finally, the Saints didn’t take a step back with Teddy Bridgewater in for Brees. The game plan didn’t’ change, nor did their aggressive defense.
Dallas has taken care of business against three awful teams, but a road victory in New Orleans as the first tough game of the year? Too much to ask.