Super Bowl LIII Has Highest Total Ever, Early Spread Shift

By Joe Nocco

January 24th, 2019 - 4:26pm

Atlanta’s much-anticipated and long-awaited Super Bowl LIII has finally found a pair of participants in the heralded New England Patriots and upstart Los Angeles Rams.

With the Rams initially punching their ticket to Super Bowl LIII with a controversial win over the New Orleans Saints, the Patriots went on the road to claim a third-straight AFC title, this time edging the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

After the tandem of Sunday outings both required overtime to settle their respective scores, the February 3‌rd bout between the Patriots and Rams can’t come soon enough for both NFL betting fans and casual football fans alike.

Super Bowl LIII Totals Setting Records Already

With both visiting teams from the conference title games reaching the Super Bowl for the first time since back in 2013 when the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers accomplished the feat, the latest installment of the NFL’s championship game is already making some more history.

Hardly coming as a major surprise, considering both the Patriots and Rams have served as two of the league’s most prolific offenses all season long, Super Bowl LIII’s total over/under opened with the highest such mark in the Super Bowl era.

Even with the majority of bookmakers’ initial total of 58.5 since coming back down to Earth in some instances to either an even 58 or perhaps 57.5, Super Bowl LIII’s over/under remains atop the charts on the all-time list.

Surpassing the previous record from Super Bowl LI between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, a matchup that saw a consensus mark of 57, this year’s contestants are notably coming off of a combined 63 points scored heading into the final game of the 2018-19 season.

While the Rams edged the Saints by the score of 26-23, thanks to the always-dependable leg of Los Angeles place kicker Greg Zuerlein, the Patriots managed to upend the Chiefs, 37-31.

Granted, both conference championship games reached surpassed regulation, so did the aforementioned Super LI – a 34-28 overtime victory for New England. Super Bowl LI also remains the only Super Bowl in NFL history to reach overtime.

Not only is the upcoming February 3‌rd matchup intriguing for those planning on betting on the total, but some almost immediate line movement calls for what could become quite the tight affair.

Early Line Shift Surprises Bettors

ESPN recently reported that the spread at more than a few sportsbooks moved from either a pick‘em or Patriots +1 to a noticeable yet only slightly different Patriots -2. If such a mere shift in points doesn’t tickle your fancy, perhaps the Patriots at -134 on the moneyline – alongside the Rams at +110 – sits better with you as a bettor.

If the Patriots enter the game as a slim two-point favorite, or if the spread shifts back in favor of the either even or the Rams, Super Bowl LIII could serve as the tightest line since Super Bowl XLIX. Surprise!

The Patriots also took part in that contest en route to infamously defeating the Seattle Seahawks, 28-24, thanks to a last second interception from cornerback Malcolm Butler.

If history chooses to repeat itself, the Patriots will overcome the Rams by a slim margin as New England previously did back on February 3‌rd, 2002. However, the first time around, the Rams entered Super Bowl XXXVI as a whopping two-touchdown favorite, before ultimately coming up short against the underdog Patriots by the score of 20-17.
Written By
Joe Nocco

Joe Nocco writes about gambling news for TopUsBets. His background is primarily sports-related and he’s one of the more balanced reporters in the betting business in terms of experience.

He’s also a regular contributor to Clutch Points and has covered... Read More

Joe Nocco writes about gambling news for TopUsBets. His background is primarily sports-related and he’s one of the more balanced reporters in the betting business in terms of experience....

Read More